01/July – COVID-19 Time varying reproduction numbers estimation for Portugal

These plots show the estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number for all the regions in continental Portugal. These reports uses the method described in the work A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics. We used the serial interval parameters similar to the ones used by CMMID with a \(\mu = 4.7 (3.7 - 6.0)\) and \(\sigma = 2.9 (1.9 - 4.9)\).

Note

This plot uses official data Data Science for Social Good Portugal, reports until 01/July. This method is sensitive to changes in COVID-19 testing procedures and the level of effort used to detect cases. Therefore, changes in the testing efforts will introduce bias if the testing practices are not kept consistent. So please keep in mind these limitations, that are often not stated in many analysis around there. Imported cases weren’t also considered in this analysis, neither the delay of the symptoms onset and reporting. I tried many times to enter in contact with DGS to understand why sometimes accumulated cases decrease from ony day to another, but they never answered, therefore I do linear interpolation when I have negative incidence.

Summary for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Map for the accumulated cases

Map for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Map of states with mean reproduction number R(t) > 1.0

Map for the accumulated deaths by COVID-19

Summary for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Last update: 01/July

_images/estim_all2.svg

Summary table for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Region Mean Estimated R (CI 0.975)
norte 1.27 (1.11 - 1.43)
rlvt 0.97 (0.93 - 1.02)
alentejo 0.84 (0.66 - 1.04)
algarve 0.82 (0.64 - 1.03)
centro 0.76 (0.60 - 0.94)

Region: Alentejo

_images/state_alentejo.png

Region: Algarve

_images/state_algarve.png

Region: Centro

_images/state_centro.png

Region: Norte

_images/state_norte.png

Region: Rlvt

_images/state_rlvt.png

Mobility region: Aveiro District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_aveiro-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Azores

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_azores.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Beja District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_beja-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Braga

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_braga.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Bragança District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_braganca-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Castelo Branco District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_castelo-branco-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Coimbra District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_coimbra-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Évora District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_evora-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Faro District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_faro-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Guarda District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_guarda-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Leiria District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_leiria-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Lisbon

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_lisbon.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Madeira

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_madeira.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Portalegre District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_portalegre-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Porto District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_porto-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Santarém District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_santarem-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Setubal

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_setubal.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Viana do Castelo District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_viana-do-castelo-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Vila Real District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_vila-real-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.

Mobility region: Viseu District

Mobility data for the sub-region

_images/mobility_state_viseu-district.png

Note

This plot uses official mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays.