18/May – Symptom regression for each state in Brazil

This is a bayesian logistic regression with a bernoulli likelihood for the outcome of the patient (positive/not positive for COVID-19) based on the reported symptoms covariates.

A HMC MCMC procedure was employed to estimate the model with 2 independent chains. On the left panel of the plots you’ll find the regression coefficients and their uncertainties. On the middle panel you’ll find the Effective Sample Size of the MCMC sampling and on the right panel you’ll find the MCMC Rhat diagnostic metric.

Some important points:

  • Only states with more than 100 cases reported on SIVEP system were used in the estimation;

  • SIVEP data doesn’t include all testing done for all states and all cities;

  • SIVEP data is observational data and correlation doesn’t imply causation, this analysis is only a predictive model for the outcome being Positive/Not Positive for COVID-19 based on the reported symptoms;

  • For more information about what each symptom means, please look at the SIVEP data dictionary;


This plot uses official data from SIVEP system in Brazil, the maximum of the notification date for this data was 18/May.

State: Alagoas / AL

Regression plot for Alagoas / Brazil


State: Amazonas / AM

Regression plot for Amazonas / Brazil


State: Bahia / BA

Regression plot for Bahia / Brazil


State: Ceará / CE

Regression plot for Ceará / Brazil


State: Distrito Federal / DF

Regression plot for Distrito Federal / Brazil


State: Espírito Santo / ES

Regression plot for Espírito Santo / Brazil


State: Goiás / GO

Regression plot for Goiás / Brazil


State: Maranhão / MA

Regression plot for Maranhão / Brazil


State: Minas Gerais / MG

Regression plot for Minas Gerais / Brazil


State: Mato Grosso / MT

Regression plot for Mato Grosso / Brazil


State: Pará / PA

Regression plot for Pará / Brazil


State: Paraíba / PB

Regression plot for Paraíba / Brazil


State: Pernambuco / PE

Regression plot for Pernambuco / Brazil


State: Piauí / PI

Regression plot for Piauí / Brazil


State: Paraná / PR

Regression plot for Paraná / Brazil


State: Rio de Janeiro / RJ

Regression plot for Rio de Janeiro / Brazil


State: Rio Grande do Norte / RN

Regression plot for Rio Grande do Norte / Brazil


State: Rio Grande do Sul / RS

Regression plot for Rio Grande do Sul / Brazil


State: Santa Catarina / SC

Regression plot for Santa Catarina / Brazil


State: Sergipe / SE

Regression plot for Sergipe / Brazil


State: São Paulo / SP

Regression plot for São Paulo / Brazil