02/July – COVID-19 Time varying reproduction numbers estimation for Brazil

These plots show the estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number for all the states in Brazil. These reports uses the method described in the work A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics. We used the serial interval parameters similar to the ones used by CMMID with a \(\mu = 4.7 (3.7 - 6.0)\) and \(\sigma = 2.9 (1.9 - 4.9)\).

Note

This plot uses official data from government, reports until 02/July. This method is sensitive to changes in COVID-19 testing procedures and the level of effort used to detect cases. Therefore, changes in the testing efforts will introduce bias if the testing practices are not kept consistent. So please keep in mind these limitations, that are often not stated in many analysis around there. Imported cases weren’t also considered in this analysis, neither the delay of the symptoms onset and reporting.

Warning

Remember that this is the instantaneous reproduction number, therefore when it is below 1.0 for one or two days, it doesn’t mean everything is ok. This method is less sensitive to under-reporting but as long as the bias is constant. So please, read the plots with the limitations in mind. As an example, Portugal had an R(t) below 1.0 for almost 3 weeks before relaxing interventions, so keep in mind that it is not about being below 1.0 for a single day but for weeks.

Summary for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Map for the accumulated cases

Map for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Map of states with mean reproduction number R(t) > 1.0

Map for the accumulated deaths by COVID-19

Summary for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Last update: 02/July

_images/estim_all.svg

Summary for recent median instantaneous reproduction number estimate

Last update: 02/July

The median R(t) estimates are clipped in 2.0 to avoid issues with the colormap.

Summary table for the last instantaneous reproduction number estimate

State Mean Estimated R (CI 0.975)
MG 1.38 (1.28 - 1.51)
PR 1.37 (1.30 - 1.44)
RN 1.37 (1.21 - 1.57)
BA 1.33 (1.20 - 1.52)
MA 1.27 (1.21 - 1.31)
PI 1.25 (1.20 - 1.30)
RR 1.20 (1.09 - 1.30)
MT 1.17 (1.12 - 1.22)
MS 1.15 (1.10 - 1.20)
DF 1.15 (1.08 - 1.22)
TO 1.13 (1.05 - 1.21)
ES 1.13 (1.06 - 1.20)
SE 1.12 (1.05 - 1.21)
RS 1.09 (1.05 - 1.14)
PB 1.08 (1.06 - 1.11)
SP 1.07 (1.05 - 1.10)
AC 1.07 (1.02 - 1.13)
SC 1.03 (0.98 - 1.09)
GO 1.02 (1.00 - 1.05)
AM 1.00 (0.96 - 1.05)
PE 0.98 (0.95 - 1.02)
CE 0.96 (0.92 - 1.00)
PA 0.90 (0.86 - 0.93)
AL 0.89 (0.86 - 0.92)
RO 0.87 (0.83 - 0.90)
RJ 0.76 (0.72 - 0.82)
AP 0.35 (0.26 - 0.46)

Summary for the Facebook COVID-like illness survey (last date)

_images/estim_all1.svg

Note

This is the summary for the Facebook COVID-like illness survey using the last survey date available for each state. Note that not all states have the same last date available, for more information please look at the plots for each state to see dynamics of these results and also the last available date.

Summary table for the Facebook COVID-like illness (CLI) survey (last date)

State Weighted Percent of CLI responses (95% CI) Sample Size Survey Date
Roraima 8.96 (2.43 - 15.50) 113 14-06-2020
Acre 5.72 (0.44 - 11.00) 101 29-06-2020
Amapá 5.67 (0.71 - 10.63) 113 30-06-2020
Paraíba 5.57 (2.83 - 8.30) 401 30-06-2020
Mato Grosso 4.85 (2.96 - 6.74) 706 30-06-2020
Piauí 4.12 (1.52 - 6.71) 300 30-06-2020
Espírito Santo 3.95 (2.10 - 5.80) 697 30-06-2020
Rio Grande do Norte 3.93 (1.87 - 5.98) 540 30-06-2020
Alagoas 3.58 (0.71 - 6.44) 230 30-06-2020
Maranhão 3.50 (1.08 - 5.93) 344 30-06-2020
Pará 3.21 (1.11 - 5.30) 376 30-06-2020
Sergipe 3.03 (0.13 - 5.93) 211 30-06-2020
Rondônia 2.76 (0.50 - 5.03) 260 30-06-2020
Ceará 2.71 (0.75 - 4.67) 426 30-06-2020
Goiás 2.48 (1.12 - 3.84) 830 30-06-2020
Tocantins 2.43 (-0.75 - 5.61) 149 30-06-2020
Rio de Janeiro 2.15 (0.87 - 3.43) 871 30-06-2020
Distrito Federal 1.69 (0.64 - 2.74) 1693 30-06-2020
Mato Grosso do Sul 1.49 (0.31 - 2.67) 563 30-06-2020
Bahia 1.48 (0.19 - 2.77) 508 30-06-2020
Pernambuco 1.45 (0.13 - 2.76) 455 30-06-2020
Amazonas 1.34 (-0.18 - 2.86) 388 30-06-2020
Santa Catarina 1.05 (-0.13 - 2.23) 477 30-06-2020
Rio Grande do Sul 0.97 (0.09 - 1.86) 713 30-06-2020
Paraná 0.95 (0.02 - 1.88) 651 30-06-2020
São Paulo 0.91 (0.48 - 1.35) 2848 30-06-2020
Minas Gerais 0.82 (0.05 - 1.59) 823 30-06-2020

State: Acre / AC

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ac.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ac.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ac1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Alagoas / AL

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_al.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_al.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_al1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Amazonas / AM

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_am.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_am.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_am1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Amapá / AP

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ap.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ap.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ap1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Bahia / BA

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ba.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ba.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ba1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Ceará / CE

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ce.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ce.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ce1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Distrito Federal / DF

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_df.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_df.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_df1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Espírito Santo / ES

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_es.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_es.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_es1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Goiás / GO

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_go.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_go.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_go1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Maranhão / MA

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ma.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ma.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ma1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Minas Gerais / MG

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_mg.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_mg.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_mg1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Mato Grosso do Sul / MS

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ms.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ms.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ms1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Mato Grosso / MT

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_mt.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_mt.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_mt1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Pará / PA

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_pa.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_pa.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_pa1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Paraíba / PB

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_pb.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_pb.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_pb1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Pernambuco / PE

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_pe.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_pe.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_pe1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Piauí / PI

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_pi.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_pi.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_pi1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Paraná / PR

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_pr.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_pr.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_pr1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Rio de Janeiro / RJ

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_rj.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_rj.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_rj1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Rio Grande do Norte / RN

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_rn.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_rn.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_rn1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Rondônia / RO

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_ro.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_ro.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_ro1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Roraima / RR

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_rr.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_rr.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_rr1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Rio Grande do Sul / RS

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_rs.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_rs.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_rs1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Santa Catarina / SC

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_sc.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_sc.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_sc1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Sergipe / SE

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_se.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_se.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_se1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: São Paulo / SP

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_sp.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_sp.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_sp1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.

State: Tocantins / TO

R(t) estimate, incidence and accumulated cases



_images/state_to.png

Mobility data for the state

_images/mobility_state_to.png

Facebook symptom survey for the state

_images/state_to1.png

Note

This plot uses official data from Brazilian government as well as mobility data from Google Community Mobility Reports. The red markers on the x-axis are weekends or holidays. This plot also uses data from the Facebook Symptom survey data kindly hosted by University of Maryland.